POLITICAL STUNNER – AT 10:30 A.M. ET:   As readers know, we've been following the contest in New York's 9th Congressional District, formerly represented by Anthony Weiner before his internet striptease. 

There'll be a special election in this "safe" Democratic district on Tuesday, and, incredible, the Republican candidate has just pulled ahead, according to late polling.  From the National Journal:

Republican Bob Turner holds a six-point lead in next week's special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., according to a new Siena College poll released early Friday that shows voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic district are poised to deliver a stinging rebuke to President Obama and his party.

Turner leads Democratic Assemblyman David Weprin in the poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. Six percent of likely voters in the Sept. 13th election are undecided.

Discontent with Washington and the president is at the heart of Turner's shocking upset bid. In a district he won by 11 points just three years ago, Obama's favorability rating is now upside down in the Siena poll, with 54 percent having an unfavorable opinion of Obama and only 43 percent viewing him favorably. A remarkable 38 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents hold an unfavorable view of the president.

The Republican also has all the momentum: A Siena poll conducted four weeks ago showed Weprin with a six-point advantage. Turner's lead does fall barely within the margin of error, but the poll shows that the GOP is on the verge of a most unlikely victory in the Outer Boroughs-based district, where Democrats hold a three-to-one advantage on the voter rolls.

But the Democratic registration advantage is tempered by the poll's crosstabs. Turner runs much stronger among Republicans, holding 90 percent of the vote, than Weprin does among Democrats, taking just 63 percent. Independents are overwhelmingly lined up behind the Republican, with 65 percent of them supporting Turner and 27 percent choosing Weprin.

COMMENT:  If Turner wins Tuesday it will be a major political event, equivalent to Scott Brown's Senate victory in Massachusetts.  New Yorkers, though welded to the Democratic Party at birth, can sometimes show an independent streak, as they have by not electing a Democratic mayor since 1989.  But this is Anthony Weiner's district.  This was Chuck Schumer's district, before he went on to the Senate.  This district has no history of going rogue.  It may – let's be cautious about it – go rogue on Tuesday. 

How do we tell the president?  Or Chris Matthews?

September 9, 2011